This week, Gerard is out, so Laurent does the Minutes with Michael Barnard, host of our sister show Redefining Energy – Tech. On the menu this week, an overview of the decarbonisation of shipping. What will be electrified? What role for Hydrogen, Green Ammonia, Methanol and Biodiesel? And the answers are hybrid and multi-fuels. Links to Michael’s articles on the subject in Forbes https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelbarnard/2023/12/05/how-will-climate-action-change-the-face-of-global-shipping/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelbarnard/2023/12/29/hydrogen-half-truths-keep-shipping-fuel-hopes-afloat/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelbarnard/2023/12/11/different-segments-of-the-shipping-market-have-different-climate-fixes/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelbarnard/2023/12/17/how-much-shipping-can-just-use-batteries-for-energy/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelbarnard/2023/12/20/shipping-still-has-efficiency-levers-to-pull-for-climate-action/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelbarnard/2023/12/27/what-energy-will-ships-that-cant-electrify-use-including-wind/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelbarnard/2024/01/05/2023-was-year-of-methanol-for-shipping-but-that-likely-wont-last/

At COP28 was endorsed the concept of “tripling renewables” – all good, but a lot of people forgot to mention the rest of the sentence which is “and doubling of Energy Efficiency”. In the latest IEA report, there is a 400bnUSD Energy Efficiency pie, almost at the level of Oil Upstream, and more than into Grids. Nobody talks about it. Buildings, Industrial, Transport. Electrification, Heat Pumps. So, Laurent and Gerard thought that is was time. There are very few specialist of Energy Efficiency like Jonathan Maxwell. Not only has he authored an extraordinary book called the EDGE, but he also manages Sustainable Development Capital SDCL, a multibillion Energy Efficiency fund. Efficient and decentralised generation of energy (or ‘EDGE’) solutions represent the largest, fastest, cheapest, and cleanest source of greenhouse gas emission reductions and energy security. Datacenters, Lighting, Building, Heating, that’s the unknown world we are going to dive into. And it is a fast growing sector. Persistent tails winds such as energy security, decarbonisation and costs are powerful drivers for a continuous expansion of that sector. We thank Aquila Capital for supporting our show

Why has the fund raised by infrastructure fund drastically collapsed in 2023. Is it linked to lackluster returns in a high interest rate environment? At the same time, we have seen numerous acquisitions of mid size infrastructure specialists by larger global asset managers, case in point the very spectacular purchase of Global Infrastructure Partners by Blackrock (or is it a reverse take over?). Where is the infrastructure investing going? That’s what on the menu of this week’s Minutes Join Laurent and Gerard in Berlin – 20/21 March 2024 – Global Infrastructure Summit https://www.peievents.com/en/event/infrastructure-investor-global-summit/

After two years of irrational exuberance, we are back to earth when it comes to Cleantech investment. On the menu this week, Gerard and Laurent are reviewing the Cleantech 100 report (15th edition). The overall ecosystem is down 40% yoy, but it has also cleaned the foam and is now revealing the future. We discuss the 5 sub-sectors (agriculture, transportation, materials, resources, and energy) Our conclusion is that the sector has digested its excesses and is on a path to a new start. Link to the report https://www.cleantech.com/the-global-cleantech-100/

Long term renewables assets portfolios provide stable returns. In most of the world, they are held by pension funds, insurance companies or big infrastructure funds. We have the exception of the UK with listed Infrastructure funds, also known as Yieldcos. For more than a decade, Yieldcos have been the backbone of the Energy Transition investing. To explain what are listed Infrastructure funds, we bring in Colette Ord, Director, Investment Companies Research Property & Infrastructure at DBNumis. Deutsche Numis is a leading UK-focused investment bank leader in the UK market, the adviser of choice for listed companies, including one-fifth of the FTSE 350 index, with an average market capitalisation of £1bn, and has acted on the most UK IPOs over the past decade. Colette Ord has analysed the listed infrastructure and renewables investment company segment of the London market since the launch of the first fund in 2006, so we dig into what was the thesis behind their launch 10 years ago. We investigate how they delivered in terms of performance. We then dig deep into the key metrics of NAV (Net Asset Value). What is NAV, how it is calculated, how is it consistent. Then we analyse the interaction between free-risk interest rates and valuation of Yieldcos. We conclude on their future, especially how they are progressively morphing into IPP (independent Power Producers) An Episode powered by AXPO Link to Bruce Huber’s paper on Yieldcos. https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/yieldco-fallout-bargain-zombie-category-bruce-huber-jnbie/

First Episode on the Redefining Energy MINUTES on the main channel. On the menu this week, an update of nuclear and offshore wind, two important (but minor) sources of carbon-free energy. And some news on the scandal at Cummins, and their pollution cheating device, costing them 1.6bnUSD. https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/cummins-take-about-204-bln-charge-fourth-quarter-2023-12-22/

Happy new year to all our listeners. It has become a tradition for the first episode of the year: Gerard and Laurent present their 2024 Predictions in the Energy Transition. And we brought in our friend (and co-host of our sister show RE TECH) to spice up the conversation: Michael Barnard. Michael also acts as referee to score the predictions that were made a year ago. - Record installation of everything Energy Transition: Solar, Batteries, Heat Pumps, EV (Gerard) - Massive consolidation in the EV sector – Toyota will buy Panasonic (Laurent) - Volatility in the Energy market is here to stay (Gerard) - New alternatives to Li-Ion in Stationary Storage (Laurent) - The Energy Transition has no plan, it just goes (Gerard) - Nuclear: Westinghouse takes over Europe (Laurent) Well, the result was that Gerard won (but Laurent is considering filing a reclamation) Now, to 2024. Our 6 predictions are: - Stellantis will outsource its EV production in China - Politics: Elections in 2024 could derail the Energy Transition - Oversupply of everything energy related – Prices are going down - Stronger top-down governance of Transmission and Interconnection - The return of Clean Energy shares - China will gain massive international market in Wind and EVs We thank our partner AXPO for supporting the show.

Final Episode of 2023 (and last one for the MINUTES on their own channel). All episodes will be on this channel going forward. Here are the Redefining Energy Awards for 2023: - Company of the Year - BYD - Start Up of the Year - PV Case - Deal of the Year – Tesla and NACS - Trade of the Year – Short Gas TTF - Scandal of the Year – Venture Global and the 200 LNG cargoes heist - Person of the Year – Jigar Shah - Stupidest Quote of the Year - Kim Kardashian - LINK TO THAT COMMERCIAL https://youtu.be/9EASYmElZuU?si=ygpWeT5FeUsQ0e26 - Book of the Year: How Big things get done – Bent Flyvbjerg & Dan Gardner Happy New Year to all our Listeners. Thank you for your unwavering confidence! And we will see you again on the 2nd of January 2024 for our famous Predictions 2024!

Last episode of the Year. And what a year. We passed 1m downloads since inception. In 2023, we will have 470k downloads up 34% compared to 2022. Gerard and Laurent saw the Weaponisation of Energy coming: two years ago in Oct 2021, we did Episode 60 called “the Natgaspocalypse”. That was 5 months before the invasion of Ukraine. Two years into weaponizing energy, it is time to look back and assess. What were the immediate impacts of that crisis. How to evaluate the short-term responses (market, supply chain, government, behaviour, fuel choice). Did the Energy system show resilience, or have we just been lucky? To make sense of all of this, we brought Andy Sommer on the show. Andy is head of Fundamental Analysis, Modelling & Meteorology at Axpo, a major Renewable Energy Producer and Trader. Andy is responsible for Axpo’s short and mid-term analysis of all global energy markets, from oil to gas and coal, all the way to European power and emission markets. With Andy, we debate how did that shock impact the eternal debate Climate vs Security of Supply vs Affordability. And beyond the short-term consequences, what are the long-term impacts and the change of mindset that will give more emphasis on Energy Security. Gerard (the Dove) and Laurent (the Hawk) come with different conclusions, but nevertheless agree on the path forward where Energy Security aligns with the Energy Transition. We thank Aquila Capital for supporting our show. They have been great partners since inception. Announcement: Big changes coming in 2024. We go weekly. In fact, we are merging the main show, this show, with our second show called Minutes. We created the sister-show Minutes two years ago as a separate experiment, and we have been pleased by its progression, so it is time to go mainstream. So, in 2024, we will have our main show, not the first and 15 of each month, but the first and third Monday of each month. And then we will have a new revamped minutes (less than 10mns) where we will freewheeling discuss about a topic making the news or important to us. That will be on the second and fourth Monday of each month (and fifth if there is a fifth Monday, which apparently is quite rare). See how it goes. Your comments are welcome. Which means, friends of Minutes, that the Minutes channel will cease to exist. Stay on the Main show for your Minutes.

This Sunday, a Special Episode. We are going live to COP28 in Dubai. Our special guest is Bruce Douglas, CEO Global Renewable Alliance, who is spearheading the effort around the key message “Double down, Triple Up” or how we will decarbonise by tripling renewables by the end of the decade. Bruce tells us how it is on the ground, how he is having the busiest week of his life, and how the positive message is now being relayed by hundreds of Heads of State and key business decision makers. "COP28 text finally agreed - this is HUGE! Massive gratitude to everyone who made this possible 🙏 - proudest moment of my career so far... 😍 “The inclusion of tripling renewables in the final COP28 text is unprecedented and signals the start of a massive clean energy revolution. It is the first time all nations have recognised renewable energy as the main solution to the climate crisis, representing a paradigm shift in the energy transition."